Many people in North India eagerly await winter, but this time ‘El Niño’ could prove to be the villain. Its conditions are strengthening in the Pacific Ocean, and temperatures are expected to remain normal or above average between November 2026 and January 2027. However, the Western Disturbance is expected to bring some balance.
‘El Niño’ may peak in December
According to the latest assessment by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a strengthening El Niño can affect temperature patterns across large parts of South Asia during winter. Several climate models suggest it could peak in December 2026. During this phase, the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean rises, which affects atmospheric circulation. This changes weather patterns worldwide and can also affect temperature and rainfall in India. Most experts believe the condition is steadily strengthening and its effect may last until February. This has increased the likelihood of a warmer-than-normal winter, though local weather conditions will also play an important role.
Cold wave still possible in North India
Despite a milder winter overall, prolonged severe cold is unlikely.
Western Disturbances may bring snowfall to Himalayan states, which will affect temperatures in the northern plains.
Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, UP, Rajasthan and Bihar may occasionally see cold wave conditions.
How cold it gets will depend on the frequency of Western Disturbances, snowfall in the mountains and the movement of north-westerly winds.
Cyclone threat in the Bay of Bengal
A low pressure area has formed over the Bay of Bengal, raising the possibility of a cyclonic storm next week. According to the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority:
It may turn into a ‘depression’ by 24 October.
It may become a ‘deep depression’ by 25 October.
By the morning of 26 October, it may take the form of a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal.
It is expected to move towards the coasts of north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha, which may cause heavy rain in parts of Andhra Pradesh.
